REARDON: I Have An Incredible Knack of Picking Preakness Winners

Mark Reardon
May 18, 2018 - 4:01 pm
May 15, 2018; Baltimore, MD, USA; Good Magic trouts off the track after completing his morning work out at Pimlico Race Course.

Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

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When Kentucky Derby winner Justify lined up in the gate two weeks ago at Churchill Downs he had 19 other horses chasing down the finish line on the first Saturday in May.

There are only 7 other horses standing in the way of Justify’s bid to become the second Triple Crown Winner in 40 years. The field this weekend at Pimlico Racecourse mirrors the field in 2015 when American Pharoah won on a sloppy track and went on to win the Belmont Stakes.
 
Justify has won all four of his starts in 2017…and broke the “Apollo Curse” on Derby day becoming the first horse in 136 years to win the Derby without having raced as a two year old.
I don’t see any reason that Justify won’t romp in the Preakness, but while I’m rooting for another Triple Crown since it’s good for the sport, my wallet would be better off if Justify finally throws in a clunker of a race. A 1/2 morning line favorite isn’t going to translate into big payouts, but there are still betting opportunities in this race.
 
I have an incredible knack of picking Preakness winners. This is how it works---I select a Derby horse that I really like, typically bet it pretty heavily---and it LOSES “bigly” on Derby Day.
BUT---that horse often comes back two weeks later to win the second leg of the Triple Crown. There is no science to this. I’m just telling you it happens!

This year that horse is Lone Sailor the second place finisher in the Louisiana Derby and 8th place in the Derby. So, given that guaranteed successful betting strategy here’s what we’re going to do:
 
Key # 2 Lone Sailor in a $1 tri with  #1 (Quip) #4 (Diamond King) #5 (Good Magic) #6 (Tenfold) #7 (Justify) and also putting 1,4,5,6,7 in the Show slot.
We’re also going to play Lone Sailor in the Place and Show position. So the bet looks like this:
 
$1 tri key #2 with #1 #4,#5,#6, #7 with #1 #4,#5,#6, #7= $20
$1 tri key #1 #4,#5,#6, #7 with #2 with #1 #4,#5,#6, #7 =$20
$1 tri key #1 #4,#5,#6, #7 with #1 #4,#5,#6, #7  with #2= $20
_____
Total Bet $60
 
 
Last year’s Derby winner Classic Empire a 2-1 Preakeness favorite finished second and with a longshot on top the payouts were generous: 
 
$2 Exacta: $98.40, $1 Trifecta: $1,097.30, $1 Superfecta: $8,162.80.
 
Bottom line---there IS a way to cash a nice ticket on the Preakness, but keep in mind if Justify prevails you won’t be filling out IRS forms.

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